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Are Japanese Equities in a Bubble?

Some market participants believe that Japanese stocks are in a bubble. However, compared to the bubble period of the late-1980s to 1990, I believe the situation today is very different. By comparing the current market with that of the bubble period (late-1980s to 1990) from multiple perspectives, I would like to forecast the future of Japanese stocks.
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Market Review for March 2021

TOPIX ended up 4.80% on the previous month-end. The expectations for global COVID-19 vaccinations and US additional economic stimulus underpinned the Japanese equity market although concerns over the hike in US interest rates still remained. The Bank of Japan decided at a monetary policy meeting that they would exclude Nikkei 225 ETF from their ETF buying list, which impacted the Nikkei 225 index.

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The Need for a Central Bank Digital Currency

Central Bank Digital Currencys (CBDC) are becoming a hot topic in the market. Although CBDCs still face multiple issues such as the eroding the function of financial intermediaries and countermeasures against cyberattacks, central banks need to secure currency sovereignty through the issuance of CBDC in order to ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy.
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Market Review for February 2021

TOPIX ended up 3.08% on the previous month-end. The expectations for a recovery of company’s earnings and US additional economic stimulus pushed the market higher. The market lost the momentum in the latter half of the month due to the decline of the US equity market following a sharp hike in US bond yield but closed higher than the previous month-end.

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Carbon Neutrality in Japan

As the world makes its efforts towards carbon neutrality, Japan also announced its "Green Growth Strategy" in December 2020. In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the Japanese government will set up a 2 trillion yen fund to encourage companies to invest in the environment, and will raise the ratio of renewable energy to 50- 60% by 2050 (It was 18% in 2019.)
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Market Review for January 2021

TOPIX ended up 0.23% on the previous month-end. In the first half of the month the Japanese equity market rallied on news that the Democrats had won majority control of Congress, and with this the expectations for additional US stimulus pushed the market higher. However, market sentiment was dampened by the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Japan and turmoil in the US equity market around the GameStop share surge caused by retail investors at the end of the month. As a result, the market closed almost flat.

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Corporate Reforms under COVID-19

Business performance of Japanese companies is clearly bottoming out due to self-reliant reforms implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic as the economy gradually picks up. Earnings and share prices had been affected by the sensitivity of their business structure to COVID-19, but going forward, performance will depend on their efforts to proactively make changes.
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Market Review for December 2020

The Japanese equity market for December rose and TOPIX ended up higher at 2.84%. The market favoured the news that US president Trump had signed the unemployment benefits package in the latter half of the month whilst the market struggled to find a direction between vaccine distribution and concerns over domestic economic activities evoked by the rise of the number of Covid-19 cases in Japan.

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The Endgame Outlook for the Japanese Market in 2021

This month's commentary covers the following as move towards year end 1) Asian countries will lead the global economic recovery. 2) The Japanese economy will recover supported by rebound of consumption 3) The BOJ’s accommodative policy as well as expansionary fiscal policy will continue. 4) We will see the Nikkei 225 testing 29,000 by end-2021